LED industry in 2015 and 2016 after the depth of the reshuffle, will usher in the inflection point, in the lighting, small spacing display and other new applications driven, the industry is expected to open a new round of growth.
From the LED industry cycle in terms of the depth of shuffling in 2015 and 2016, the supply side of the reform has been more adequate, LED industry has been in the S-shaped industry curve of the second wave of cattle to open: from the LED upstream supply point of view, industry capacity The concentration of accelerating to enhance, and the formation of higher barriers to the industry, to curb the expansion of the production capacity of the disorder; at the same time downstream application innovation to drive the entire industry chain to flourish, through the LED industry development process, landscape lighting, LCD backlight, outdoor lighting , Outdoor large-screen display and other applications at different stages of the industry to become the driving force for rapid development. At the current point of view, LED lighting penetration continues to increase, LED lighting intelligent network, and the small gap display accelerated outbreak, is becoming a new round of leading LED industry demand for the main driving force.
China chip products are moving to the world, foreign chip leader will be part of the product orders to domestic enterprises on behalf of the processing, the data show that 2016 domestic chip exports accounted for 9.6% of the total domestic chip output value, up 15 percentage points year on year increase. 2016 chip output grew by more than 10%.
Supply side: 2016 LED upstream supply side of the full reform, concentration to accelerate the upgrade
LED industry chain supply side reform has been more fully, according to the data show that "2015 more than 20%, about 4,000 LED-related enterprises out of the market." To chip companies, for example, according to the data show that in 2014 the top five largest chip companies market share has increased to 67% or more, is expected to 2016 to more than 70%.
According to industry insiders said that after a round of reshuffle, the government subsidy object has changed: the current only those who can become a leading enterprise subsidies, the subsidy is already narrowed, some small and medium enterprises want to get subsidies less likely The After the cancellation of subsidies in 2015, the enterprise's new production line machine investment is increasing, many small businesses will be unable to bear.
2016 international chip makers have to reduce production capacity, or cancel the expansion plan, the domestic chip leading regional advantages continue to highlight. Crystal power, CREE from the beginning of the second half of 15 years to reduce production, to the beginning of 16 years has been a cumulative reduction of 25%, San An photoelectric 16 years early termination of the 47 to the German MOCVD purchase contract, Samsung, LG shut down part of the production capacity, The new century has been 2 to 3 years without expansion plans, no new machine plan. At the same time as the Chinese government in 2015 to cancel the purchase of MOCVD subsidies, the new production line of capital investment pressure, the domestic small and medium chip manufacturers expansion impulse dropped significantly.
Demand side: 2016 LED lighting penetration rate of rapid increase, intelligent lighting, small spacing detonated new hot spots
LED lighting penetration rate of only 27.2% in 2015, 2016 global LED lighting market continues to grow rapidly. From the downstream application point of view, as the main LED application direction of the general lighting market, the global penetration rate of 27.2% (2015) (Digitimes) is expected in 2016 penetration will exceed 31.3%, the global market size of up to 34.6 billion US dollars, the expected 2017 permeability Can exceed 36%, the market size of more than 10% rapid growth.
LED lighting intelligent, network, space and then upgrade more than 1.3 times. Philips said: lighting value from the single to the intelligent LED lighting system and lighting services, market space up to 65 billion euros, compared to 2015 global market size of 30 billion US dollars, an increase of 130%. Philips as early as 2012 launched the HUE series of intelligent lighting products, the main limited time switch, theme transformation, application reminders and other user-friendly features, have a good user experience. Obviously high. Therefore, the wisdom of lighting will be the first high-end home lighting market penetration, thereby enhancing the overall civilian LED lighting penetration.
The next 10 years LED light source is expected to fully replace all the traditional light source. As the global LED lighting luminous efficiency of the median has been in the 130 ~ 150lm / w, the highest luminous efficiency has been developed to 300lm / w, has been significantly higher than the traditional incandescent (15lm / w), halogen (20lm / w), fluorescent 85lm / w) and other traditional light sources, with the continuous improvement of light efficiency, chip and other supplies cost reduction, the size of the overall cost of lighting led to a continuous decline in the next 10 years will be expected to fully replace all the traditional light source.
Small pitch LED display market is the rapid development of the next five years, the industry compound growth of more than 24%. With the LED packaging technology continues to mature, the package gradually narrow the size of the device, small-distance display is from the outdoor into the room, and gradually complete the existing DLP and LCD splicing screen alternative to become a big screen display another big killer application.
Strategic point of view: 2017 LED chip in short supply, optimistic about the future development of the industry
In line with the LED chip 2017 annual production capacity of about 83.28 million, the demand for about 92.35 million. The overall LED chip industry in a steady state of growth. Any industry capacity is slightly higher than the demand is the balance of supply and demand of steady-state characteristics, and 2017 LED demand is still 12.5% steady growth, and supply greater than demand, so the LED chip industry in short supply, industry performance is expected or will grow steadily.